1 Critical Corporate Results Story for CFOs

In the world of corporate results, one story dominated Canadian print this week: Walmart's slowest sales growth in six years. According to Press Monitor's tracking of Canadian publications, this development signals a shift in consumer behaviour that CFOs everywhere must watch. Here is the key story from our media monitoring.

1. Walmart's Growth Hits a Wall

“Selon The Globe And Mail, Walmart Inc. posted the slowest sales in years in its home market of the United States as consumers worried about their finances tightened their wallets. Comparable sales at Walmart’s U.S. stores rose 2.6 per cent in its most recent quarter, the retailer reported Thursday, its slowest growth in more than six years. The company’s stock fell about 9 per cent in morning trading, erasing tens of billions of dollars in market value in its steepest daily decline since 2O22. The world’s largest retailer had been on a roll, with cost-conscious shoppers flocking to its stores in search of deals in an uncertain economy. Walmart said lower drug prices brought on by regulatory changes dragged down its U.S. sales last quarter. Still, the company raised its out-look for sales and profit for the full fiscal year. Company executives said the business saw shoppers’ behaviour change when the national average price of gasoline surpassed US$4 a gallon in July, an indication that American consumers were feeling more pressure than they did at the beginning of the year. "Perhaps there’s a psychological impact to that,” John David Rainey, the chief financial officer of Walmart, said on a conference call with investors and analysts. "There are choices that consumers are making." America’s biggest retailers said this week that consumers had been wary with their spending and keen to get value from every dollar spent, even if household balance sheets seemed healthy. Reported earnings this week from Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s and TJX, the parent company of TJ Maxx, provided a snapshot of how American households are faring as the cost of living remains high, including grocery bills, housing costs and gas prices. At the same time, the job market has remained fragile and wage growth has slowed. Delinquencies on credit cards, auto loans and student debt are on the rise. "Households’ balance sheets remain healthy in aggregate, but the saving rate is very low and elevated loan delinquencies suggest that a significant minority are struggling to make ends meet,” Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note. Shoppers also pulled back on spending at the start of the second half of the year, with retail sales down O.6 per cent in July from the prior month, according to nationwide data released by the Census Bureau. But with back-to-school season kicking off and as retailers prepare for the impending holiday rush, the companies are hoping shoppers become less stingy. Retailers have tried to keep prices down. Some have cited tariff refunds, the repayments to businesses after the Supreme Court’s ruling in February that struck down many of the Trump administration’s emergency import taxes, as giving them leeway to keep prices down. Target said it had lowered prices on about lO,OOO items in its stores over the past year, and that it would push for more price reductions. Almost its entire selection of school supplies is priced at or below what they were last year. “We're proud of that price investment,” Michael Fiddelke, the chief executive of Target, told investors. “We think it matters to consumers right now.” Walmart has been reducing prices, too, and the retailer has told investors that it has made it a priority to use its tariff refund on price cuts. In the United States, Walmart temporarily lowered the prices of ll,OOO items in its most recent quarter, up from 7,2OO products in the previous quarter, with the intent of making those reductions permanent when possible. “We're investing heavily in price because customers need us to,” John Furner, the CEO of Walmart, told investors. TJX, the owner of the off-price chains TJ Maxx and Marshalls, said its selection of cheap goods had put it in a good position to capitalize on economic trends, and that it saw higher customer traffic and a rise in what shoppers spent per visit. Comparable sales rose 4 per cent in its most recent quarter, and company executives are plowing ahead with plans to add hundreds of new stores. “We are confident that consumers will continue to look for value in the current environment,” Ernie Herrman, the CEO of TJX, told investors. Home improvement stores have been struggling for several years. Households worried about their finances amid economic uncertainty and high mortgage rates have put off big-ticket renovations. Housing turnover has also been low. “There’s just no sign of an inflection point at this moment,” Richard McPhail, the chief financial officer of Home Depot, told investors. Marvin Ellison, the CEO of Lowe’s, said high interest rates, inflation and the price of gas had weighed on his customer base, which is made up of middle-income homeowners. Even so, those shoppers have strong personal balance sheets, disposable income growth and more equity in their homes. But they’re still wary. “It’s a combination of fuel prices, geopolitical events and other uncertain things,” Mr. Ellison said. “When you combine all these things together, people are just being cautious with their discretionary spend.”

Why it matters: Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, posted a mere 2.6% comparable sales growth in its U.S. stores, its weakest performance in over six years. The stock dropped 9% in a single day, erasing billions in market value. For CFOs, this is a bellwether for consumer health and retail pricing power.

Key detail: The pressure came from federal drug price negotiations dragging down pharmacy revenue, plus rising gas prices above $4/gallon, which CFO John David Rainey called a “psychological impact.” Walmart is investing heavily in price cuts — 11,000 items at lower prices — using tariff refunds to fund them.

Source: The Globe and Mail (Montreal Gazette, Calgary Herald, Le Journal de Quebec also covered).

Next step: Monitor peer results from Target, Home Depot, Lowe's, and TJX for confirmation of trend.

Closing thought: When Walmart slows down, the whole retail ecosystem feels it. Are your forecasts accounting for this shift?